Labour Market Report – November 2024
This article provides an overview of the most recent Labour Market Report which delves into the current dynamics impacting the UK workforce. Consistent with the previous couple of months, estimates should be treated with additional caution due to the smaller sample sizes and therefore increased volatility of Labour Force Survey estimates.
Trends and considerations: A comparative overview
The estimated number of vacancies in the UK decreased in August to October 2024, by 35,000 on the quarter to 831,000. Vacancies decreased on the quarter for the 28th consecutive period but are still above pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels.
The early estimate of payrolled employees for October 2024 decreased by 5,000 (0.0%) on the month but increased by 95,000 (0.3%) on the year, to 30.4 million. These estimates should be treated as provisional and are likely to be revised when more data is received next month.
Latest data: employment, unemployment, and earnings
The UK employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was estimated at 74.8% in July to September 2024 which is largely unchanged on a year ago, but up in the latest quarter. Despite this, the unemployment rate for people aged 16 years and over are above estimates from a year ago and up in the last quarter.
The report explains that the total annual growth in employees’ average earnings (4.8% excluding bonuses 4.3% including bonuses – July to September 2024) in Great Britain is affected by the civil service one-off payments made in July and August 2023.
Furthermore, Annual growth in real terms, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) for regular pay was 1.9% in July to September 2024, and for total pay was 1.4%. There were an estimated 48,000 working days lost because of labour disputes across the UK in September 2024.
Key Indicators at a Glance:
Job Vacancies: Vacancies decreased on the quarter for the 28th consecutive period but are still above pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels.
Nominal & Real Earnings: Regular and total annual growth rates are down from the high rates over the last couple of years.
Payrolled Employees: The number of payrolled employees continues to be well above pre-pandemic levels.
Employment Rate: The employment rate is up on the quarter but largely unchanged on the year, and is still below pre-pandemic rates.
Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate is up on the quarter and up on the year, and is above pre-pandemic rates.
Inactivity Rate: The economic inactivity rate is down on the quarter and down on the year, but is still above pre-pandemic rates.
Conclusion
The November 2024 Labour Market Report showed that the keys trends from previous months remain consistent. Despite this, challenges remain, particularly in terms of economic inactivity and employment which are both still less favourable than pre-pandemic levels.
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