The latest labour market figures for July 2024 indicate a continued cooling trend in the UK economy. While the number of job vacancies has been steadily decreasing, unemployment rates are rising. Despite this, earnings growth remains relatively strong, albeit lower than in previous months. This report delves into the nuances of these changes, examining various employment measures and providing insights into the current economic landscape.
Employment Trends
Recent data shows mixed signals across different employment indicators. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) reports a decrease in employment estimates, while HMRC’s Real Time Information (RTI) data shows an increase in payrolled employees. This discrepancy highlights the importance of considering longer-term trends for a clearer picture.
Key Figures
Payrolled Employees: Increased by 54,000 (0.2%) from April to May 2024.
Rose by 265,000 (0.9%) between May 2023 and May 2024.
Early estimate for June 2024 shows a 16,000 (0.1%) monthly increase.
Employment Rate: Estimated at 74.4% for March to May 2024, showing a decline from the previous year.
Unemployment Rate: Estimated at 4.4%, an increase over the last quarter and year.
Economic Inactivity Rate: At 22.1%, this rate has decreased from the last quarter but is higher than a year ago.
Vacancies and Earnings
Job vacancies have decreased for the 24th consecutive quarter, yet they remain above pre-pandemic levels. This persistent decline reflects broader economic shifts. Meanwhile, earnings growth continues to be strong:
Average Earnings: Annual growth of 5.7% for both regular pay and total earnings, including bonuses.
Real Earnings: Adjusted for inflation, regular pay saw a 2.5% growth, while total pay grew by 2.2%.
Labour Disputes
May 2024 saw 49,000 working days lost due to labour disputes, highlighting ongoing tensions within certain sectors.
Conclusion
The July 2024 labour market report presents a complex picture of the UK’s economic health. While job vacancies are decreasing and unemployment is on the rise, earnings growth offers a silver lining. Employers and job seekers alike should be aware of these trends as they navigate the evolving landscape.
If you are a candidate or a business and would like more information, please contact us on 01604 239555 or email info@impactrecruitment.co.uk, and a member of our team will be in touch.
