The labour market in the UK is an important indicator of how the economy is performing. In March 2023, it is expected that the employment rate will remain high and will have increased further since March 2022. Moreover, it is also expected that the unemployment rate will remain low and continue to decline over time. Furthermore, job vacancies are also expected to remain high due to a surge in new businesses being created in the UK. All these factors point to an improving labour market situation in March 2023 compared with March 2022.
Between November 2022 and January 2023, the employment rate in the UK was estimated to be 75.7%, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous three-month period. The increase in employment during this period was mainly due to more people being employed part-time or working for themselves.
Key Indicators:
- Payrolled employees – the number of payrolled employees is now well above pre-pandemic levels
- Employment rate – the employment rate is up on the quarter and up on the year, and is still below pre-pandemic rates
- Unemployment rate – the unemployment rate is unchanged on the quarter, but decreased on the year, and is still below pre-pandemic rates
- Inactivity rate – the economic inactivity rate decreased on the quarter and on the year and is still above pre-pandemic rates
- Redundancy rate – the redundancy rate increased on the quarter and has returned to levels similar to those seen prior to the pandemic
- Hours worked – total actual weekly hours worked increased on the quarter and are still below pre-pandemic levels
- Job vacancies – vacancies decreased on the quarter but are above pre-pandemic levels.
- Nominal earnings – total pay growth continues to be smaller than regular pay growth in November 2022 to January 2023 due to bonuses
- Real earnings – inflation has been increasing, causing real pay growth rates to decrease
The number of payrolled employees in the UK increased by 98,000 in February 2023, reaching 30 million. However, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7% between November 2022 and January 2023, with a slight increase in the number of people unemployed for over a year during the same period.
Economic inactivity decreased by 0.2 percentage points in the same quarter, largely due to a decrease in students and retired individuals. The estimated number of vacancies also decreased by 51,000 from December 2022 to February 2023, marking the eighth consecutive quarterly decline.
The average total pay (including bonuses) increased by 5.7%, while regular pay (excluding bonuses) increased by 6.5% from November 2022 to January 2023, with higher growth in the private sector than the public sector. However, after adjusting for inflation, real total and regular pay growth decreased by 3.2% and 2.4%, respectively, which is among the largest declines since comparable records began in 2001.
There were 220,000 working days lost because of labour disputes in January 2023, down from 822,000 in December 2022.
In December 2022, workforce jobs rose by 211,000 on the quarter to a new record high of 36.4 million, with 6 of the 20 industry sectors at record high levels.
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Source: http://bit.ly/3LmXF0C
