The latest ONS Labour Market Report, released in April 2025, provides a snapshot of the current employment landscape in the UK. This summary highlights the key trends and changes, particularly relevant for businesses navigating the recruitment market.
- Job Vacancies: Continuing Downward Trend
Vacancies fell for the 33rd consecutive quarter to 781,000 (Jan-Mar 2025), down 26,000 on the previous quarter and 15,000 below pre-pandemic levels, indicating cooling employer demand.
- Change since last month: Previous report showed broadly unchanged vacancies; current report indicates a clear decrease.
- Nominal Earnings: Steady Growth Persists
Regular pay grew by 5.9% and total pay by 5.6% annually (Dec 2024-Feb 2025), showing continued strong nominal wage growth.
- Change since last month: Regular pay growth unchanged; total pay growth slightly lower than the previous report.
- Real Earnings: Positive Growth After Inflation
Real regular pay increased by 2.1% and real total pay by 1.9% annually (Dec 2024-Feb 2025) due to easing inflation.
- Change since last month: Both real regular and total earnings growth slightly lower than the previous report.
- Payrolled Employees: Slight Decrease in Latest Data
Payrolled employees decreased by 8,000 (0.0%) between January and February 2025, with an early estimate of a further 78,000 (0.3%) decrease in March.
- Change since last month: Previous report showed an increase in February; current report revises this and indicates a significant decrease in March.
- Employment Rate: Modest Increase
The employment rate (16-64) rose to 75.1% (Dec 2024-Feb 2025), up on the quarter and year.
- Change since last month: Slight increase compared to the previous report’s estimate.
- Unemployment Rate: Largely Unchanged
The unemployment rate (16+) remained at 4.4% (Dec 2024-Feb 2025), unchanged on the quarter but up on the year.
- Change since last month: No change from the previous report.
- Inactivity Rate: Slight Decrease
The inactivity rate (16-64) fell to 21.4% (Dec 2024-Feb 2025), down on the quarter and year.
- Change since last month: Further slight decrease compared to the previous report.
Notable Regional Changes: Northamptonshire/East Midlands
Looking at the regional breakdown for the three months ending February 2025:
The employment rate in the East Midlands was 74.8%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous quarter (September to November 2024).
The unemployment rate in the East Midlands was 4.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous quarter.
The inactivity rate in the East Midlands was 21.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous quarter.
While specific data for Northamptonshire isn’t provided in this high-level report, the East Midlands figures suggest a slight softening in the employment market for the region, with a decrease in employment and an increase in both unemployment and inactivity rates compared to the previous quarter.
Conclusion: Moderating Labour Market
The latest Labour Market Report signals a cooling UK labour market. Job vacancies are down, falling below pre-pandemic levels and indicating moderating employer demand. While nominal earnings growth is strong, real earnings are now positive. The employment rate slightly increased, unemployment remained stable, but a slight rise in inactivity and a potential dip in payrolled employees require monitoring. The East Midlands shows a divergent trend with lower employment and higher unemployment and inactivity. Businesses should adopt nuanced recruitment strategies, focusing on attracting and retaining talent amid ongoing wage growth.
Source: https://bit.ly/4jtcFbu (ONS: Labour Market Overview, April 2025)
